Dear Friends - I have deleted the CBOX/Shout box from my blog with immediate effect. This is becuase someone has imporsonated as 'SH' and posted comments in Cbox saying some blogs are group blogs of this one.
Please note I write only this blog hence bookmark this blog address. I DO NOT write any other blogs hence please dont fall in any trap ....
Also, all genuine readers of my blog please add yourself as a 'follower' of this blog and send me an email on stock.hunter@yahoo.com confirming your email ID. After some time I intend to make this blog 'invitation only' to keep unknown trouble makers away from my blog.
In case you want to ask any questions... please leave your comments on my post and I will respond.
Cheers
SH
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
27th Feb 09
Yesterday NF made a high of 2786 and a low of 2730 which fitted nicely between my M2 & M5 levels. I hope people traded it both ways intraday.
On a swing basis, NF in Feb has not been hitting my 200 points targets as it has been ranging in a tight range throughout the month. My shorts initiated at 2850 levels did see 2660 but did not hit 2630, and now we are sitting at 2780. In any case, like a desciplined trader I would stick to my plans and hold NF with SL 2880. I will add more shorts at around 2825-2850 (these are the shorts that i booked partially with 100 points profits earlier).
Magik levels for today
NF = 2730, 2761, 2802, 2827, 2860
Cheers
SH
On a swing basis, NF in Feb has not been hitting my 200 points targets as it has been ranging in a tight range throughout the month. My shorts initiated at 2850 levels did see 2660 but did not hit 2630, and now we are sitting at 2780. In any case, like a desciplined trader I would stick to my plans and hold NF with SL 2880. I will add more shorts at around 2825-2850 (these are the shorts that i booked partially with 100 points profits earlier).
Magik levels for today
NF = 2730, 2761, 2802, 2827, 2860
Cheers
SH
Thursday, February 26, 2009
25th Feb 09
I was not well yesterday hence could not update my blog in the morning before the market opened.
On 23rd Feb NF did make a low of 2675 however reversed from there because of the new excise and duty cuts announced by the govt. Technically we saw a lot of rollover as well (40%) which . pushed march series in deep discount but bouyed the Feb series NF.
Above chart shows how on 23rd the channel line was broken downwards but it pulled back and closed again in the channel. It is still in the channel hence remains rangebound. However there is a strong possibility that this channel will be broken in March series now giving a huge trader rally on each side. I expect the first rally to be downwards and then probably once all bears are trapped a run in opposite direction.
Yesterday was a continuation of that rolloover and today can be a brokers day as it usually is on expiry day. I would advise all to stay away from day trading and if one is still holding Feb series shorts they should ne rolloed over to March. I would advise buying March series 2800 put today on any rise with SL 2880 on NS.
Todays magic numbers for NF
NF = 2716, 2735, 2758, 2785, 2808
Cheers
SH
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
24th Feb 09
After a long weekend Indian mkts are being greeted by global bears with red ticks on all indeces. DOW and S&P have been falling like nine pins in the last few days. On Friday we saw some sort of pullback in the Nifty which excited a lot of bulls, however I saw it as discounting of the Monday rally that happened yesterday while Indian Mkts were closed.
Today with all global bad news, we will open gap down and my target of 2630 might get achieved today itself. At 2630-40 I will think of initiating a smal buy with 2610 SL.
todays gap down will also mean I will be able to achieve my swing targets on the remaining 3 open calls. I have been very pleased with the results of my stock calls, out of 11 calls 8 will achieve its target profits of 10-20% each whereas only 3 would have hit 2-5% SLs. For next month I will try and play these swings on stocks with options.
Magic numbers for today
NF = 2630, 2662, 2691, 2725, 2752
Cheers
SH
Today with all global bad news, we will open gap down and my target of 2630 might get achieved today itself. At 2630-40 I will think of initiating a smal buy with 2610 SL.
todays gap down will also mean I will be able to achieve my swing targets on the remaining 3 open calls. I have been very pleased with the results of my stock calls, out of 11 calls 8 will achieve its target profits of 10-20% each whereas only 3 would have hit 2-5% SLs. For next month I will try and play these swings on stocks with options.
Magic numbers for today
NF = 2630, 2662, 2691, 2725, 2752
Cheers
SH
Friday, February 20, 2009
20th Feb 09
As anticipated, yesterday was a green day again however I could not add fresh shorts to top up my existing shorts since Mkts didnt reach 2800 levels.
From an intraday perspective, NIfty stayed trapped in my M3 & M4 levels yesterday hence everytime it reached my M3 levels I was longing intraday since I didnt see any downside to Nifty yesterday... generated nice 4 trades intraday for 15 point each.
Today, as expected again will be a DOWN day and I expect next week to get worse. I will continue to hold my swing shorts (initiated from 2850 levels) for targets 2630. I will add more shorts if I see 2825-50 levels again next week (though very remote chance). At 2630, I plan to book 220 points profit and open a swing long with SL 2600 ... If my 30 point SL is hit I will get back into shorts again with SL 2650.
Today's Magic Numbers
NF = 2705, 2734, 2765, 2780, 2805
Cheers
SH
From an intraday perspective, NIfty stayed trapped in my M3 & M4 levels yesterday hence everytime it reached my M3 levels I was longing intraday since I didnt see any downside to Nifty yesterday... generated nice 4 trades intraday for 15 point each.
Today, as expected again will be a DOWN day and I expect next week to get worse. I will continue to hold my swing shorts (initiated from 2850 levels) for targets 2630. I will add more shorts if I see 2825-50 levels again next week (though very remote chance). At 2630, I plan to book 220 points profit and open a swing long with SL 2600 ... If my 30 point SL is hit I will get back into shorts again with SL 2650.
Today's Magic Numbers
NF = 2705, 2734, 2765, 2780, 2805
Cheers
SH
Thursday, February 19, 2009
19th Feb 09
yesterday was a day as if I had already seen it happening in my dreams, as anticipated a gap down happened and recovered immediately.. I longed at the gap down and and earned 25 points in no time. Also, the prediction of a green closing also came true.
Magic levels worked well as well, the intraday NF high made was around 2793 (my M4) and Low was 2730 (2728 was my M2). So I made money in shorts as well as longs during the day on an intraday basis.
Today i anticipate another green day for NF however I will continue to hold my swing shorts and add more if NF reaches 2800-2825 levels.
Intraday Magic levels.
NF= 2700, 2730, 2765, 2799, 2830
Cheers
SH
Magic levels worked well as well, the intraday NF high made was around 2793 (my M4) and Low was 2730 (2728 was my M2). So I made money in shorts as well as longs during the day on an intraday basis.
Today i anticipate another green day for NF however I will continue to hold my swing shorts and add more if NF reaches 2800-2825 levels.
Intraday Magic levels.
NF= 2700, 2730, 2765, 2799, 2830
Cheers
SH
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
18th Feb 09
As expected by me yesterday the breach of trendline at open meant more downside. It was a day completely dominated by sellers yesterday and and there was no respite on offer for the bulls. Intraday, once it slipped below 2790 it never saw the daylight and kep falling until 2750. I was not expecting NF to go below 2750 but it surprised me by going down to 2742, however in the end it did pull itself up back to close above my M1 at 2752.
Our swing shorts should be around 100 points plus now and I will continue holding them for 2630 target with SL 2900 again. Today I was expecting a slight gap up however global cueues seems to suggest a small gap down. I would advise people and intraday trade at open - buy if it gaps down and starts to recover in first 10 mins .... for easy 25-30 points.. NF should fill the gap once. keep SL 10 points.
Nifty can end up green today in the end and probabaly tomorrow as well to show us 2800 range once again, it will be a good opportunity to add more shorts.
Magic levels for today
NF = 2699, 2728, 2770, 2793, 2859
Cheers
SH
Swing views on stock - status on 17th Feb closing
BhartiAirtl - Bharti has advanced to 673 now from 665 and is on target for 700 with SL 635 now. New buyers should wait for a dip around 650 (if it comes) and buy there. Update - 15 point SL (2%) hit on Bharti yesterday.
BHEL has achieved its target of 1430 (40 point gains). CMP 1447, short if it keeps below 1450 with SL 1455. ABove 1450 please long for targets of 1500-1525 with SL 1440. Update - BHEL closed at 1381 yesterday hence 63 point (4%) profit on BHEL besides 30 points earlier... target achieved.
CAIRN - CMP 162. Please short at these levels SL 166 for targets 145. If trades above 166 please long for targets 185 with SL 162. Update - Update - CAIRN closed at 154 so on target for 145 target.
ICICIBANK - This scrip has been oscilatting both ways unfortunately hitting my small SLs both sides hence increasing the SLs on it slightly now. CMP 435, Please sell below 430 SL 445 for targets 350. If trades above 435 buy with SL 400 for targets 500. Update - ICICI closed at 385 yesterday and is on target of achieving 350.
JP Associate - Has risen now to 76.50. Please sell around here and more around 79 with 82 SL for targets 60-65. Above 82 buy with 78 SL for targets 95-100. Update - JP touched 66.40 yesterday and should reach around 65 at today's open itself hence 14 point (18%) profit should be booked, target achieved.
Maruti - Maruti looks bullish. CMP 632. Buy on dips near 615 with SL 605 for tragets of 650. Below 605 sell with 615 SL for targets of 560. Update - 10 point (1.8%) SL hit on Maruti - now a reverse short should have been initiated.
Relinfra - After hitting a 7 point bullish SL, Relinfra should have been shorted at 570 as per my post . Relinfra CMP is 541 hence 29 point profits and still counting. Update - RELinfra closed at 518 yesterday hence paper profits of 52 (9%). Its still on target for 480.
RPL - Should have been shorted on Tuesday when it made a high of 89 as per my post. CMP 87. Please short if it again rises around 90 with SL 92 for targets 75. Above 90 slong for targets 105 with SL 88. Update - RPL also plunged yesterday and closed at 82. Peper profits of 7 points (9%) and on traget for 75.
SAIL - looks bullish. CMP 88. Buy here and more near 84 with SL 80 for targets of 95. Below 80 please sell for targets of 70 with SL 82. Update - Sail closed at 82.80 and call is still active.
SBI - CMP 1158. Please sell on rise around 1200 with 1220 SL for target of 1050. Above 1220 please long for targets of 1320. Update - SBI soared to 1200 a few days back and a sell should have been initiated. It closed at 1098 yesterday and is on target to achieve 1050.
Sesagoa - CMP 97. Went above 99 upto 103 but reversed and hit 2 point SL of 97. Now one should be in shorts with SL 103 for targets on 86. Update - Sesagoa made a low of 85.15 yesterday hence achieved my target of 86 which is 11 point profit (10%).
Cheers
SH
BHEL has achieved its target of 1430 (40 point gains). CMP 1447, short if it keeps below 1450 with SL 1455. ABove 1450 please long for targets of 1500-1525 with SL 1440. Update - BHEL closed at 1381 yesterday hence 63 point (4%) profit on BHEL besides 30 points earlier... target achieved.
CAIRN - CMP 162. Please short at these levels SL 166 for targets 145. If trades above 166 please long for targets 185 with SL 162. Update - Update - CAIRN closed at 154 so on target for 145 target.
ICICIBANK - This scrip has been oscilatting both ways unfortunately hitting my small SLs both sides hence increasing the SLs on it slightly now. CMP 435, Please sell below 430 SL 445 for targets 350. If trades above 435 buy with SL 400 for targets 500. Update - ICICI closed at 385 yesterday and is on target of achieving 350.
JP Associate - Has risen now to 76.50. Please sell around here and more around 79 with 82 SL for targets 60-65. Above 82 buy with 78 SL for targets 95-100. Update - JP touched 66.40 yesterday and should reach around 65 at today's open itself hence 14 point (18%) profit should be booked, target achieved.
Maruti - Maruti looks bullish. CMP 632. Buy on dips near 615 with SL 605 for tragets of 650. Below 605 sell with 615 SL for targets of 560. Update - 10 point (1.8%) SL hit on Maruti - now a reverse short should have been initiated.
Relinfra - After hitting a 7 point bullish SL, Relinfra should have been shorted at 570 as per my post . Relinfra CMP is 541 hence 29 point profits and still counting. Update - RELinfra closed at 518 yesterday hence paper profits of 52 (9%). Its still on target for 480.
RPL - Should have been shorted on Tuesday when it made a high of 89 as per my post. CMP 87. Please short if it again rises around 90 with SL 92 for targets 75. Above 90 slong for targets 105 with SL 88. Update - RPL also plunged yesterday and closed at 82. Peper profits of 7 points (9%) and on traget for 75.
SAIL - looks bullish. CMP 88. Buy here and more near 84 with SL 80 for targets of 95. Below 80 please sell for targets of 70 with SL 82. Update - Sail closed at 82.80 and call is still active.
SBI - CMP 1158. Please sell on rise around 1200 with 1220 SL for target of 1050. Above 1220 please long for targets of 1320. Update - SBI soared to 1200 a few days back and a sell should have been initiated. It closed at 1098 yesterday and is on target to achieve 1050.
Sesagoa - CMP 97. Went above 99 upto 103 but reversed and hit 2 point SL of 97. Now one should be in shorts with SL 103 for targets on 86. Update - Sesagoa made a low of 85.15 yesterday hence achieved my target of 86 which is 11 point profit (10%).
Cheers
SH
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
17th Feb 09
A suspected by my the interim budget failed to offer any goodies to the market and it did prove to be a big DOWN day. I hope people who were long in NF closed their long positions as suggested by me in the morning and shifted to 3000 CE which would have meant that they would have only lost 10-15 points in calls when the 2870 SL was taken out. For intraday moves, again as suspected by me my M1 was taken out convincingly to a non stop ride to 2820. If you see how the EOD charts are developing (above) mkts closed at the trendline but is still in the broader channel. Today I suspect that mkts will gap down due to negative global cueus which will mean a breach of this trendline hence more downside. I had opened swing shorts at close of day yesterday since it was closing below 2880.Magic numbers for today
NF = 2750, 2790, 2860, 2894, 2965 (today my M1 & M5 should not be breached)
Cheers
SH
Monday, February 16, 2009
16th Feb 09
As mentioned on Friday morning, I was correct in anticipating that Friday would be the day when my M1 and M5 both were in danger to be broken convincingly. Nifty closed yet on a strong note on Friday despite bad global cues which was an indication of the fact that some goodies are being expected by the mkts from the interim budget today. There are already talks of tax breaks, STT changes and lower interest rates doing rounds in south block (and in every trader's room) so today can be one of the big 'DOWN' days if the inetrim budget fails to deliver these goodies. I also didnt like the fact that NIty gave up 30-40 points in last 30 mins which was indicative of some long positions being unwinded at the last moment... not a very comforting sign for bulls is it?I would suggest NF holders to book profits at the open and switch to 3000 calls for atleast today. Techinically we are still bullish and NIfty can touch 3100-3160 this week itself.
Magic Numbers of today
NF = 2900, 2925, 2951, 2974,3000 (again today 2900 or 3000 might get taken out)
Cheers
SH
Friday, February 13, 2009
13th Feb 09
Despite global bloodbath, Nifty managed to stay above 2860-70 which are the levels I am looking at to hold for my swing buys. Intraday it kept on miving between 2881 and 2914 and should have given multiple opportunities to all to make money both ways.
Today, If Nifty closes below 2860-70, I will close my swing longs and open my swing shorts. There is a good chance of NIfty to breakout below my M1 or above my M5.
Intraday magic numbers
NF = 2845, 2865, 2891, 2915, 2940
Cheers
SH
Today, If Nifty closes below 2860-70, I will close my swing longs and open my swing shorts. There is a good chance of NIfty to breakout below my M1 or above my M5.
Intraday magic numbers
NF = 2845, 2865, 2891, 2915, 2940
Cheers
SH
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Swing views on stocks - continued...
BhartiAirtl - Bharti has advanced to 673 now from 665 and is on target for 700 with SL 635 now. New buyers should wait for a dip around 650 (if it comes) and buy there.
BHEL - BHEL has achieved its target of 1430 (40 point gains). CMP 1447, short if it keeps below 1450 with SL 1455. ABove 1450 please long for targets of 1500-1525 with SL 1440.
CAIRN - CMP 162. Please short at these levels SL 166 for targets 145. If trades above 166 please long for targets 185 with SL 162.
ICICIBANK - This scrip has been oscilatting both ways unfortunately hitting my small SLs both sides hence increasing the SLs on it slightly now. CMP 435, Please sell below 430 SL 445 for targets 350. If trades above 435 buy with SL 400 for targets 500.
JP Associate - Has risen now to 76.50. Please sell around here and more around 79 with 82 SL for targets 60-65. Above 82 buy with 78 SL for targets 95-100.
Maruti - Maruti looks bullish. CMP 632. Buy on dips near 615 with SL 605 for tragets of 650. Below 605 sell with 615 SL for targets of 560.
Relinfra - After hitting a 7 point bullish SL, Relinfra should have been shorted at 570 as per my post . Relinfra CMP is 541 hence 29 point profits and still counting.
RPL - Should have been shorted on Tuesday when it made a high of 89 as per my post. CMP 87. Please short if it again rises around 90 with SL 92 for targets 75. Above 90 slong for targets 105 with SL 88.
SAIL - looks bullish. CMP 88. Buy here and more near 84 with SL 80 for targets of 95. Below 80 please sell for targets of 70 with SL 82.
SBI - CMP 1158. Please sell on rise around 1200 with 1220 SL for target of 1050. Above 1220 please long for targets of 1320.
Sesagoa - CMP 97. Went above 99 upto 103 but reversed and hit 2 point SL of 97. Now one should be in shorts with SL 103 for targets on 86.
Net result of 2 days - 48 point profit and 10 point loss...
Cheers
SH
BHEL - BHEL has achieved its target of 1430 (40 point gains). CMP 1447, short if it keeps below 1450 with SL 1455. ABove 1450 please long for targets of 1500-1525 with SL 1440.
CAIRN - CMP 162. Please short at these levels SL 166 for targets 145. If trades above 166 please long for targets 185 with SL 162.
ICICIBANK - This scrip has been oscilatting both ways unfortunately hitting my small SLs both sides hence increasing the SLs on it slightly now. CMP 435, Please sell below 430 SL 445 for targets 350. If trades above 435 buy with SL 400 for targets 500.
JP Associate - Has risen now to 76.50. Please sell around here and more around 79 with 82 SL for targets 60-65. Above 82 buy with 78 SL for targets 95-100.
Maruti - Maruti looks bullish. CMP 632. Buy on dips near 615 with SL 605 for tragets of 650. Below 605 sell with 615 SL for targets of 560.
Relinfra - After hitting a 7 point bullish SL, Relinfra should have been shorted at 570 as per my post . Relinfra CMP is 541 hence 29 point profits and still counting.
RPL - Should have been shorted on Tuesday when it made a high of 89 as per my post. CMP 87. Please short if it again rises around 90 with SL 92 for targets 75. Above 90 slong for targets 105 with SL 88.
SAIL - looks bullish. CMP 88. Buy here and more near 84 with SL 80 for targets of 95. Below 80 please sell for targets of 70 with SL 82.
SBI - CMP 1158. Please sell on rise around 1200 with 1220 SL for target of 1050. Above 1220 please long for targets of 1320.
Sesagoa - CMP 97. Went above 99 upto 103 but reversed and hit 2 point SL of 97. Now one should be in shorts with SL 103 for targets on 86.
Net result of 2 days - 48 point profit and 10 point loss...
Cheers
SH
12th Feb 09
Despite the global blood bath Nifty managed not get into a panic selling mode, probably the mkt makers were anticipating DOW to rally yestrday after the bloodbath hence decided not to break NIfty. Since DOW was green yesterday, a good day for Nifty to fall.
Anyways coming back to technicals, Nifty charts are still bullish for several reasons and any dips today can be used to buy provided NS stays above 2860/2870.
Please keep a watch on the shoutbox here ... some of my stock recommendations have already started meeting their target prices...
Magic Numbers for today
NF - 2840, 2881, 2914, 2950, 2979
Cheers SH
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
11th Feb 09
EOD Nifty chart, clearly NIfty had brokn out of the falling trendline (though still in the broad price channel), RSEX is bullish, MACD which is giving positive ticks & price is above 20 EMA. Please note Nifty closed above monthly pivot as well hence all signs are bullish.
US news have made all markets sink globally and the same is expected with Nifty. We are set for 2-3% gap down which should take NF around or below my 2860 SL levels... however I would wait and see till EOD if it does sustain below 2860 levels and then only think of opening up any shorts.
Yesterday intraday magik numbers worked beautifully, Nifty made a high of 2949 which was 1 point less than my M4. I initiated shorts at 2945 with SL 2955 (as explained in my post) target 2880. It fell like nine pins and achieved 2880. At 2885, I squared off shorts and ideally should have initiated longs SL 2875, as it sprung up like anything and finally closed around 2928. But I didnt take the last trade since I had already made 60 point intraday on my first trade. In hindsight, I should have traded it well for another 40-50 points.
On stocks, I saw BHEL achieved its target of 1430 in one day itself. A lot of other stcoks have been triggered and lets see how they perform in coming days.
Magik numbers for today
NF = 2815, 2842,2882,2918,2960
Cheers
SH
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Swing views on stocks
I have started this just to add more spice since Nifty is rangebound. Lets see if we can get some stocks working as per my TA as well.
BhartiAirtl - Looks bullish. CMP - 665, can be bought at between 640-670 with SL 620 for targets of 700.
BHEL - looks bullish again. CMP - 1391, can be bought between 1360-1400 with SL 1340 for targets of 1430.
Cairn - looks bullish. CMP 168, can be bought between 160-170 for targets 180.
ICICI - nicely poised, CMP 428. If it stays above 430 today please buy between 428-435 with SL 420 for target 490
ITC - CMP 183. Short if it rises around 187 with 190 as SL for targets 178.
JP Associate - CMP 74.80. Short if rises around 80 with 83 as SL for targets 58.
Relinfra - CMP 578. If it stays above 575 today please go long with SL 568 for targets 650. However if it slips to 570 please short with SL 575 for targets 480.
RPL - CMP 88.15. Long above 90 SL 88 for targets 105. Short below 90 with SL 92 for targets 75.
Sesagoa - CMP 99. Long above 99 with 97 SL for targets 110. Short below 99 with 103 SL for targets 86.
Wipro - CMP 226. Short at these levels SL 232 for targets 210. Go long above 232 SL 225 for targets 255.
Please note these are all cash levels and all SLs are reversible i.e whenever an SL is hit an opposite position should be initiated immediately.
Cheers
SH
BhartiAirtl - Looks bullish. CMP - 665, can be bought at between 640-670 with SL 620 for targets of 700.
BHEL - looks bullish again. CMP - 1391, can be bought between 1360-1400 with SL 1340 for targets of 1430.
Cairn - looks bullish. CMP 168, can be bought between 160-170 for targets 180.
ICICI - nicely poised, CMP 428. If it stays above 430 today please buy between 428-435 with SL 420 for target 490
ITC - CMP 183. Short if it rises around 187 with 190 as SL for targets 178.
JP Associate - CMP 74.80. Short if rises around 80 with 83 as SL for targets 58.
Relinfra - CMP 578. If it stays above 575 today please go long with SL 568 for targets 650. However if it slips to 570 please short with SL 575 for targets 480.
RPL - CMP 88.15. Long above 90 SL 88 for targets 105. Short below 90 with SL 92 for targets 75.
Sesagoa - CMP 99. Long above 99 with 97 SL for targets 110. Short below 99 with 103 SL for targets 86.
Wipro - CMP 226. Short at these levels SL 232 for targets 210. Go long above 232 SL 225 for targets 255.
Please note these are all cash levels and all SLs are reversible i.e whenever an SL is hit an opposite position should be initiated immediately.
Cheers
SH
10th Feb 09
Though NIfty stays in the broad price channel on EOD charts, it has broken out yet again from a falling trendline suggesting that it can hit the upper channel again which is around 3100. I have been feeling bullish about this set up for some time now and have been sharing them through the blog. Finally Nifty did manage to overcome the small resistance area around 2850-2880 and closed above 2900. My last swing SL of 2900 got hit.On an intraday basis, Nifty showed a 45 degree upmove thorughout the day. I was not expecting Nifty to cross 2900 hence today I expect some weakness before Nifty resumes its upwards move again. I initiated my swing longs yesterday at 2906 however today if it dips around 2880 please buy NF with SL 2860 as swings.
NIfty intraday magic numbers
NF = 2790, 2842, 2880, 2950, 2980
Cheers
SH
Monday, February 9, 2009
Stocks that I would follow for swings
Hi all,
Below is the initial list of stocks that I intend to track and quote my swing buy sell levels. I have kept in mind that I cover different sectors of the market and track only high turnover stocks. In case you want to add more stocks to the list please leave your suhhestions....
1. Reliance Industires
2. Cairn
3. RPL
4. HUL
5. ITC
6. DLF
7. JP Associate
8. Relinfra
9. BHEL
10. RCOM
11. BhartiAirtl
12. Sesagoa
13. Maruti
14. Glenmark
15. Cipla
16. SAIL
17. SBI Bank
18. ICICI Bank
19. Infosys
20. Wipro
I would post entry levels everyday morning in my post whenever I see a good setup for any of the above stocks developing. This will be along with NIfty levels. Once a trade is triggered, I will keep a track of them and give exit levels again through my blog. I will also produce a monthly report card with overall results. Iwill post these levels in Cash and futures traders can entr/exit when the cash levels are triggered.
Cheers
SH
Below is the initial list of stocks that I intend to track and quote my swing buy sell levels. I have kept in mind that I cover different sectors of the market and track only high turnover stocks. In case you want to add more stocks to the list please leave your suhhestions....
1. Reliance Industires
2. Cairn
3. RPL
4. HUL
5. ITC
6. DLF
7. JP Associate
8. Relinfra
9. BHEL
10. RCOM
11. BhartiAirtl
12. Sesagoa
13. Maruti
14. Glenmark
15. Cipla
16. SAIL
17. SBI Bank
18. ICICI Bank
19. Infosys
20. Wipro
I would post entry levels everyday morning in my post whenever I see a good setup for any of the above stocks developing. This will be along with NIfty levels. Once a trade is triggered, I will keep a track of them and give exit levels again through my blog. I will also produce a monthly report card with overall results. Iwill post these levels in Cash and futures traders can entr/exit when the cash levels are triggered.
Cheers
SH
9th Feb 09
Good morning friends,
Hope you liked the weekend swing strategy and NIfty weekly views.
NF on Friday was not able to cross 2845 (my magic number) and was a good shorting opportunity at 2840. It gave quick 25 points when it broke to 2815 before recovering the lost ground. NIfty continues to be weak until it clears 2800-2900 hence I would contineu to hold shorts.
Besides NIfty, from tomorrow I plan to now post swing entries and exit levels on some selected stocks. I will start tracking top 20-30 trading stocks and will post entry calls with SLs and targets as and when I see them. My objective will be to keep SLs of max 1% but a profit target of atleast 5-10%. I will also track the results and will publish them daily so that we now how they fared every month end.
In case any of the reader wants me to track any specific stock going forward, please leave messages in Shoutbox on this blog.
Magic numbers for today
NF = 2798, 2825, 2853, 2875, 2900.
Swing positions
Continue holding Nifty shorts with 2900 as SL.
Cheers
SH
Hope you liked the weekend swing strategy and NIfty weekly views.
NF on Friday was not able to cross 2845 (my magic number) and was a good shorting opportunity at 2840. It gave quick 25 points when it broke to 2815 before recovering the lost ground. NIfty continues to be weak until it clears 2800-2900 hence I would contineu to hold shorts.
Besides NIfty, from tomorrow I plan to now post swing entries and exit levels on some selected stocks. I will start tracking top 20-30 trading stocks and will post entry calls with SLs and targets as and when I see them. My objective will be to keep SLs of max 1% but a profit target of atleast 5-10%. I will also track the results and will publish them daily so that we now how they fared every month end.
In case any of the reader wants me to track any specific stock going forward, please leave messages in Shoutbox on this blog.
Magic numbers for today
NF = 2798, 2825, 2853, 2875, 2900.
Swing positions
Continue holding Nifty shorts with 2900 as SL.
Cheers
SH
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Weekend thoughts - Nifty Weekly charts
On weekend if I get time I tend to study the weekly and monthly charts. I am lucky this weekend to be able to spend some time on my computer and thought to leave some views on my blog for my friends.
The weekly charts and Monthly charts are important to read for positional trades as well as to time you investments.
On the above Nifty weekly chart, the rangebound markets are clear as they seem to be trapped between the two pink lines I have drawn. The resistance is around 3150 levels and the support has been coming at 2600 levels. Nifty will have to breakout and close above or below these two lines before any positional call can be taken.
For fibo lovers and believers, I have also plotted the fibo retracement levels of the last down leg. Interestingly the important retracement level of 38.2% is right around 3150 levels and believe me or not, the monthly R1 pivot level is also around that area.... well... talk of so many foes accumulated at one place to stop any bullish advances! anyways, if Nifty can close above these levels .. it will be fantastic for bulls... right time to go long !! However, as a positional trader I would rather short near 3150 keeping a 50 point SL and initiate longs if SL is hit.
By the way, other good news for bulls right now is that both MACD and RSEX are bullish currently... guys are we set to see 3500 levels again in next two months? Will leave you with that thought to ponder upon!
Cheers
SH
Friday, February 6, 2009
Price Channel - Chart Example
This chart has to be read with below explained strategy of price channels. The plotted items are:1. Nifty Spot EOD prices for last 18 months
2. Red line - 100 EMA
3. Grey line - 22 EMA
4. Blue envelope is the price channel
5. Green circles are buy trades
6. Red circle are sell trades
Please note while 100 EMA is going up long trades are entered at green circle (22EMA) and booked at red circles (price channel wall). Similarly when 100EMA is coming down short trades are entered at red circles (22EMA) and booked at green circles (price channel wall)
Cheers
SH
Price Channels - How to encash mkt hysteria
Hi Friends,
I am going to discuss one of my favourite strategies for swing trades. There is always a few dilemmas in front of the traders in terms of:
1. Which direction to trade?
2. Where to enter the trade?
3. Where should be our stop losses?
4. What should be our profit target?
This is an attempt to answer above questions one by one and develop a sound swing trading system. I read about it in last year in one of the authored by Elder Alexander and I have customised to NIfty and other Indian stocks. Its an excellent book called 'Come into my trading room' and I recommend all to read it.
Coming back to the strategy:
1. Which direction to trade?
The best way to ascertain which direction to trade is to ascertain the current medium term trend. I use 100 EMA (EOD Time Frame) to ascertain the medium term trend i.e if 100EMA is sloping up trend is up so always look to enter longs and shorts are prohibited. Similarly if 100EMA is sloping down shorts are permitted but longs are prohibited. Hope this answers question 1
2. Where to enter the trade?
In an uptrend, obviosuly one would want to buy as cheap as possible and similarly in a downtrend one would want to sell as high as possible. What we dont want is we end up buying too high or selling too low. Markets swings go through two phases .. the phase of hysteria and the phase of composure. You want to enter into a trade when the mkts are going through a phase of composure rather than the phase of hysteria. For eg in bull run you want to buy in a phase of compure but sell as soon as mkts enter a phase of hysteria, opposite in bear markets. The way I define state of compusure is when price is touching 22 EMA (22 signifies a month). Hence I would only buy near 22 EMA in bull mkt ( bull means upward sloping 100 EMA) or short near 22EMA in bear mkt (downward sloping 100EMA).
So plot 100 EMA to decide the medium term trend and enter trades in composure phase i.e when prices are at 22 EMA.
3. Where should be our stop losses?
There are many ways to put an SL depending on risk management which is different with different people. I prefer to put a stop of 2%% i.e if I long at 3000 NF my SL will be 3060 NF for swings. Just make sure your stop losses are away enough to ensure you dont get stopped out due to market noise.
4. What should be our profit target?
This is the most fascinating part ....where to book my profitable trades. Some people tend to book based on some pre-detrmined levels, some based on risk reward ratio etc etc. The art is to let profit run until the hysteria stage is reached and book immediately while markets are still in a hyesteria stage. In 90% of cases mkts would stay in hesteria for a couple of days, would return back to compsoure in the following 2-3 days and you are good to enter the next trade again !! Hysteria is when the price moves away the value zone of 22 EMA. For this I plot a price channel (its available of Icharts - Charts Premium only .. not available on any RT charts). I plot Envelope (20 +/- 10%) with parameters 17,0.1. This will draw a beautifyl channel around your Nifty price and the channel walls are your profit targets. As soon as price hits the channel wall...it signifies mkts have entered a state of hysteria and hence a good place to exit profitable trades.
This is an excellent strategy and can be customised by different users. But remember the rule of 100EMA & 22EMA and you would never fail. In 2008, this strategy generate 7-8 sell signals with 500 odd point profit each... thats Rs 25000 per nifty lot per trade ! I will post a chart after this and will let you spot places where SL might have been hit :-)
I clearly see 3-4 places where SL was hit for 60 points per trade. Small SL big rewards is the key!
If a reverse trade was taken (i.e buy at 22 EMA book at channel wall and reverse sell at channel wall book at 22 EMA) would have meant additional 150 points profit per trade.. however this is a bit tricky to do and requires money management so dont try it yet !!
If one can just master this technique and follow the discipline…. I can guarantee a person can turn 50K to 5Lakhs in an year. The key is discipline and patience….
Please let me know your comments and valued feedback.
Cheers
SH
I am going to discuss one of my favourite strategies for swing trades. There is always a few dilemmas in front of the traders in terms of:
1. Which direction to trade?
2. Where to enter the trade?
3. Where should be our stop losses?
4. What should be our profit target?
This is an attempt to answer above questions one by one and develop a sound swing trading system. I read about it in last year in one of the authored by Elder Alexander and I have customised to NIfty and other Indian stocks. Its an excellent book called 'Come into my trading room' and I recommend all to read it.
Coming back to the strategy:
1. Which direction to trade?
The best way to ascertain which direction to trade is to ascertain the current medium term trend. I use 100 EMA (EOD Time Frame) to ascertain the medium term trend i.e if 100EMA is sloping up trend is up so always look to enter longs and shorts are prohibited. Similarly if 100EMA is sloping down shorts are permitted but longs are prohibited. Hope this answers question 1
2. Where to enter the trade?
In an uptrend, obviosuly one would want to buy as cheap as possible and similarly in a downtrend one would want to sell as high as possible. What we dont want is we end up buying too high or selling too low. Markets swings go through two phases .. the phase of hysteria and the phase of composure. You want to enter into a trade when the mkts are going through a phase of composure rather than the phase of hysteria. For eg in bull run you want to buy in a phase of compure but sell as soon as mkts enter a phase of hysteria, opposite in bear markets. The way I define state of compusure is when price is touching 22 EMA (22 signifies a month). Hence I would only buy near 22 EMA in bull mkt ( bull means upward sloping 100 EMA) or short near 22EMA in bear mkt (downward sloping 100EMA).
So plot 100 EMA to decide the medium term trend and enter trades in composure phase i.e when prices are at 22 EMA.
3. Where should be our stop losses?
There are many ways to put an SL depending on risk management which is different with different people. I prefer to put a stop of 2%% i.e if I long at 3000 NF my SL will be 3060 NF for swings. Just make sure your stop losses are away enough to ensure you dont get stopped out due to market noise.
4. What should be our profit target?
This is the most fascinating part ....where to book my profitable trades. Some people tend to book based on some pre-detrmined levels, some based on risk reward ratio etc etc. The art is to let profit run until the hysteria stage is reached and book immediately while markets are still in a hyesteria stage. In 90% of cases mkts would stay in hesteria for a couple of days, would return back to compsoure in the following 2-3 days and you are good to enter the next trade again !! Hysteria is when the price moves away the value zone of 22 EMA. For this I plot a price channel (its available of Icharts - Charts Premium only .. not available on any RT charts). I plot Envelope (20 +/- 10%) with parameters 17,0.1. This will draw a beautifyl channel around your Nifty price and the channel walls are your profit targets. As soon as price hits the channel wall...it signifies mkts have entered a state of hysteria and hence a good place to exit profitable trades.
This is an excellent strategy and can be customised by different users. But remember the rule of 100EMA & 22EMA and you would never fail. In 2008, this strategy generate 7-8 sell signals with 500 odd point profit each... thats Rs 25000 per nifty lot per trade ! I will post a chart after this and will let you spot places where SL might have been hit :-)
I clearly see 3-4 places where SL was hit for 60 points per trade. Small SL big rewards is the key!
If a reverse trade was taken (i.e buy at 22 EMA book at channel wall and reverse sell at channel wall book at 22 EMA) would have meant additional 150 points profit per trade.. however this is a bit tricky to do and requires money management so dont try it yet !!
If one can just master this technique and follow the discipline…. I can guarantee a person can turn 50K to 5Lakhs in an year. The key is discipline and patience….
Please let me know your comments and valued feedback.
Cheers
SH
6th Feb 09
The market continues to stay in a tight range, yesterday the bulls were decimated again however they were able to recover some lost ground at the end.
I hope Ms Deepika Krishnan made some money in Relinfra trading my magic numbers yesterday since it swung between 525 and 506 during the day.
I have not recieved any feedback yet on whether this blog is helping or any questions which is slightly dissappointing.
Anyways...on the weekend I would reveal one of my favourite stategies around channels hence keep watching the space...
Magic Numbers for today
NF = 2726, 2768, 2805, 2845, 2878
Swing Positions
Continuing to hold ICICI and NF shorts as per stated SLs. NF target is 2630 where I will swing buy.
Cheers
SH
I hope Ms Deepika Krishnan made some money in Relinfra trading my magic numbers yesterday since it swung between 525 and 506 during the day.
I have not recieved any feedback yet on whether this blog is helping or any questions which is slightly dissappointing.
Anyways...on the weekend I would reveal one of my favourite stategies around channels hence keep watching the space...
Magic Numbers for today
NF = 2726, 2768, 2805, 2845, 2878
Swing Positions
Continuing to hold ICICI and NF shorts as per stated SLs. NF target is 2630 where I will swing buy.
Cheers
SH
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Relinfra - On request of Ms Deepika Krishnan
I am posting my levels on Relinfra on request of Ms Deepika Krishnan.
Relinfra looks weak to me on the charts pretty much same like Nifty... I see resistance on this counter around 580 hence a short is recommended around these levels SL 595, target can be 475. Above 595 longs can be initiated SL 575 for targets around 650-680.
On the downside I see the first support at 475 hence a long can be taken SL 455 for targets of 570-75. Below 475 fresh shorts can be initiated SL 490 for targets of 380.
Intraday magic levels for 5th Feb (cash) = 493, 506, 525, 541, 558
Cheers
SH
Relinfra looks weak to me on the charts pretty much same like Nifty... I see resistance on this counter around 580 hence a short is recommended around these levels SL 595, target can be 475. Above 595 longs can be initiated SL 575 for targets around 650-680.
On the downside I see the first support at 475 hence a long can be taken SL 455 for targets of 570-75. Below 475 fresh shorts can be initiated SL 490 for targets of 380.
Intraday magic levels for 5th Feb (cash) = 493, 506, 525, 541, 558
Cheers
SH
5th Feb 09
yesterday again a see-saw between bulls and bears. For the last two days Nifty has seen heavy selling whenever they have tried going above 2820-30 levels and buying has emerged around 2750 -60 levels.... its worth observing that till now all bull moves have been small and are often erased in a single bear move.... I have also posted the price channel I am watching right now to get into a positional trade. However till that time we will keep playing intra and swings.
Please do give me feedback if you like charts being added and if they help you by leaving your comments for this blog. Also, I have decided to share some of the strategies I have learned for which I will post a blog every weekend. In case you want to know about anything specific, please email me and put your comments here on the blog.
Yesterday intraday magic numbers did well, though it was a small day the numbers still gave reasonable returns. Infosys magic numbers did really well.
Intraday Magic numbers for 5th Feb 09
NF = 2718, 2747, 2790, 2826, 2860
Swing Positions
Same as yesterday, hold NF and ICICI shorts.
Cheers
SH
Please do give me feedback if you like charts being added and if they help you by leaving your comments for this blog. Also, I have decided to share some of the strategies I have learned for which I will post a blog every weekend. In case you want to know about anything specific, please email me and put your comments here on the blog.
Yesterday intraday magic numbers did well, though it was a small day the numbers still gave reasonable returns. Infosys magic numbers did really well.
Intraday Magic numbers for 5th Feb 09
NF = 2718, 2747, 2790, 2826, 2860
Swing Positions
Same as yesterday, hold NF and ICICI shorts.
Cheers
SH
Nifty EOD chart analysis
My first attempt to add charts on my blog, hope it helps.
EOD charts points to an ascending price channel (you may call it an ascending wedge/triangle whatever depending on how you see it). The prices have been swinging in this channel since October lows were made which is common whenever the markets are trying to establish a base, this often indicates the fall is over (or temporarily withheld) and markets would try and consolidate. This period can be followed by a fierce rally or a fall on either side hence be watchful of this channel breakout (i.e two consecutive EOD candle close on either side) as and when it happens.
Technically, MACD is still in negative zone, prices below 50EMA and 22 EMA (bearish) however RSEX is gradually showing bullish signs atleast till now. So my shorts can be in danger !!
Cheers
SH
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
How to trade the magic numbers
This post is for people who do not understand the best way to trade my magic numbers, an attempt I am making and hope you understand.
On a daily basis I will be giving 5 magic numbers ascending order..Lets call them M1, M2,M3,M4 & M5 respectively. Each of these levels are important supports and resistances, I would not expect the mkts to fall below M1(hence safest place to initiate a long with SL 5 points below M1) and would not expect mkts to go above M5 (safest place to short with SL 5 points above M5 ). These trades should be 90% accurate on normal days. Targets are M2 for longs and M4 for shorts respectively however if the difference between the two levels is more than 40 points I usually book around 25-30 points and wait for next opportunity
Similarly M2, M3 & M4 can be played on both sides with 10 point SL for 70-80% accuracy. However I personally do not start trading on on magic levels in first 20-30 minutes to let the overnight noise die down.
Cheers
SH
On a daily basis I will be giving 5 magic numbers ascending order..Lets call them M1, M2,M3,M4 & M5 respectively. Each of these levels are important supports and resistances, I would not expect the mkts to fall below M1(hence safest place to initiate a long with SL 5 points below M1) and would not expect mkts to go above M5 (safest place to short with SL 5 points above M5 ). These trades should be 90% accurate on normal days. Targets are M2 for longs and M4 for shorts respectively however if the difference between the two levels is more than 40 points I usually book around 25-30 points and wait for next opportunity
Similarly M2, M3 & M4 can be played on both sides with 10 point SL for 70-80% accuracy. However I personally do not start trading on on magic levels in first 20-30 minutes to let the overnight noise die down.
Cheers
SH
4th Feb 09
Yesterday was a see-saw battle between bears and bulls, a classic day for intraday traders where the market gapped up, then lost all gains, then ran up again until last 45 mins to close when suddenly something hit the bulls hard and markets crashed to a doji like closing.... for some it was a good intraday game whereas for others it was frustrating since their SLs got hit both ways.
Structurally, this swing seems to be more bullish than bearish to me however I would like to stick to my system and levels hence no longs until 2890-2900 levels are crossed on an EOD basis.
My Nifty shorts from 2850 are still intact and so are my ICICI shorts from 420. HOwever today it seems we are set up for a nice gap up in the morning!!
Besides NIfty, I am posting intraday magic levels of Infy and swing levels for Punj LLoyd on couple of requests i got yesterday.
Intraday magic numbers for 4th Feb 09
NF = 2695, 2730, 2780, 2815, 2865
Infy(cash) = 1235,1265,1280, 1310,1325
Swing Positions
Continue holding NF shorts initiated at 2850 SL 2890-2900
Continue holding ICICI shorts initiated at 420 SL 406
Punj Lloyds = Punj looks week to me, can fall upto 65 from here which is where a long can be initiated with 60 as SL . On the upside it will face resistance around 125 levels hence a short can be created around 120.
Cheers
SH
Structurally, this swing seems to be more bullish than bearish to me however I would like to stick to my system and levels hence no longs until 2890-2900 levels are crossed on an EOD basis.
My Nifty shorts from 2850 are still intact and so are my ICICI shorts from 420. HOwever today it seems we are set up for a nice gap up in the morning!!
Besides NIfty, I am posting intraday magic levels of Infy and swing levels for Punj LLoyd on couple of requests i got yesterday.
Intraday magic numbers for 4th Feb 09
NF = 2695, 2730, 2780, 2815, 2865
Infy(cash) = 1235,1265,1280, 1310,1325
Swing Positions
Continue holding NF shorts initiated at 2850 SL 2890-2900
Continue holding ICICI shorts initiated at 420 SL 406
Punj Lloyds = Punj looks week to me, can fall upto 65 from here which is where a long can be initiated with 60 as SL . On the upside it will face resistance around 125 levels hence a short can be created around 120.
Cheers
SH
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
3rd Feb 09
What a reversal in the markets on Monday ... all gains made in last 3-4 days got wiped in one single day as Nifty slided more than 100 points in a day and closed at 2735.
Nifty opened at around 2832 (my magic number) and quickly slid below it in the first 5 mins, it was a perfect place to short with SL 5 points above my magic figure of 2832. I had not predicted Nifty to go below 2796 yesterday however once it went below 2796 (my magic number) I knew the next support is around 2720-30 range only. I shared these words in SB in the morning and they finally came true as Nifty made a final intraday low of 2728. I had personally shorted at 2825 in the morning and covered up near 2800 .. and again shorted at 2790 covered up at 2730.
The NF swing shorts initiated at 2850 are doing fantastically well as well... however I am still vary we will see 2800/2900 range once more hence i booked 50% of my swing shorts and holding rest hedged with 2900 calls. My target on the downside is 2630 where I will initiate swing longs SL 2610.
I am jubiliant with my ICICI swing shorts as well initiated at 420 levels as it closed at 384 yesterday. My target here again is around 360. TSL now is 406.
Educomp has been a disappointment since there has been a huge discount, I am planning to drop it from my blog going forward. Please suggest any stocks that you want me to track and I am more than happy to help.
Intraday magic levels for 3rd Feb 09
NF = 2662, 2701, 2772, 2805,2870
Swing Levels
As yesterday, hold ICICI and NF shorts.
Cheers
SH
Nifty opened at around 2832 (my magic number) and quickly slid below it in the first 5 mins, it was a perfect place to short with SL 5 points above my magic figure of 2832. I had not predicted Nifty to go below 2796 yesterday however once it went below 2796 (my magic number) I knew the next support is around 2720-30 range only. I shared these words in SB in the morning and they finally came true as Nifty made a final intraday low of 2728. I had personally shorted at 2825 in the morning and covered up near 2800 .. and again shorted at 2790 covered up at 2730.
The NF swing shorts initiated at 2850 are doing fantastically well as well... however I am still vary we will see 2800/2900 range once more hence i booked 50% of my swing shorts and holding rest hedged with 2900 calls. My target on the downside is 2630 where I will initiate swing longs SL 2610.
I am jubiliant with my ICICI swing shorts as well initiated at 420 levels as it closed at 384 yesterday. My target here again is around 360. TSL now is 406.
Educomp has been a disappointment since there has been a huge discount, I am planning to drop it from my blog going forward. Please suggest any stocks that you want me to track and I am more than happy to help.
Intraday magic levels for 3rd Feb 09
NF = 2662, 2701, 2772, 2805,2870
Swing Levels
As yesterday, hold ICICI and NF shorts.
Cheers
SH
Monday, February 2, 2009
2nd Feb 09
Friday proved to be one hell lot of a day for bulls.... Nifty on Friday, even after going below Thursdays lows which I thought was a crucial, recovered and rallied to end up close to days highs. This is clearly emerging as a bullish setup however I will go long only above my swing levels of 2880 and above is achieved and atleast a close above these levels on an EOD basis.
My intraday magic levels worked ... but couldnt give the right levels since the change in series and NF values from Thursday to Friday changed some of my calculations... hopefully today they will perform better. HOwever still, NF low on Friday was 2766 (above my magic levels of 2752) and once it crossed 2810 (my magic levels again) it never looked back. I had loned on intraday basis at 2815 and squared off at 2850 since 2852 was my another magic numbers.
Educomp again rocked...however I had a losing trade on it intraday for 30 points after it gave me 50 points in morning.
Intraday magic numbers for 2nd Feb 09
NF = 2796, 2832,2912,2941
Educomp = 1656,1725, 1780,1860
Swing Levels
Same as last week... I am short on NF and SL is 2900.
ICICI shorted at 422 SL 420 now.
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